After a July defined by severe weather events that pushed losses to typical seasonal levels, August saw a sharp drop in the catastrophe landscape. Allstate reported estimated pre-tax catastrophe losses of $213 million — about half its historical August median of $412 million — while Progressive came in at $70 million, also well below trend. At first glance, those numbers suggest a breather for insurers and their clients alike. But seasoned agents know better than to let their guard down in early fall.
A False Sense of Security?
According to Insurance Insider, the slower pace of losses so far this quarter is driven largely by one simple fact: the U.S. has yet to see a major landfalling hurricane in 2025. That absence has kept hurricane damage losses across the board below expectations. Through the first two months of Q3, Allstate’s third-quarter total losses stand at $397 million, less than half of the $814 million it had reached by this point last year. Progressive’s third-quarter losses are roughly on par with last year’s pace.
Still, on a year-to-date basis, both carriers are sitting on some of their highest year-to-date totals in six years: $4.6 billion for Allstate and $1.3 billion for Progressive. That reality underscores how volatile the first half of the year was, and how quickly things could change with just one powerful storm.
The Most Active Weeks Still Lie Ahead
If history is any indication, the tail end of October can still pack a punch. While the peak of hurricane season is winding down, the final weeks often deliver surprises. Some of the most damaging U.S. landfalls have occurred late in the season. Just last year, Hurricane Helene made landfall at the end of September, driving nearly $900 million in losses for Progressive alone. With a few weeks left before the official season ends, it’s too soon to declare 2025’s season over.
Why Agents Should Stay Alert
For insurance agents, now is not the time to ease up on client conversations around catastrophe insurance. One powerful landfalling storm could quickly shift the entire claims and reinsurance landscape for your property owning clients.
Jencap’s experts are closely monitoring hurricane activity and guiding agents through a rapidly evolving market. From structuring layered programs to sourcing Cat-specific coverage, Jencap helps you position clients for stability no matter how the rest of the 2025 hurricane season unfolds.
Explore the full August catastrophe loss analysis from Insurance Insider, and connect with Jencap to prepare your clients for whatever Mother Nature has in store.
